The people have spoken in the referendum on the European Union. The decision is for the UK to leave the EU.
Today, we have seen the falling stock markets that were predicted. So whatever your basis for voting, and no matter which box you put your cross in, you probably have a degree of unease about how things are to pan out now.
Just what kind of post Brexit world are we looking at for your money now?
What has Brexit changed?
It’s important to say that nothing will change overnight.
As the Prime Minster said when he resigned this morning, the government needs to choose a new leader to be Prime Minister. Whoever is selected will decide on the timetable for negotiating the UK’s EU exit.
The new Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. That is a clause in the EU Constitution that triggers a two year period of stability, for the UK and EU to reach an agreement on how to trade and work together.
So in the meantime, it is business as usual.
What does Brexit mean for the economy?
Some commentators are predicting modest economic growth, much as things are right now. While others are predicting a recession.
The reality remains to be seen.
Neil Woodford, one of the UK’s most respected Fund Managers concluded that Britain’s long-term economic future would be largely unaffected by a decision to leave the European Union. You can see the independent report he commissioned on the issue by clicking here.
The global economic backdrop will continue to be challenging, regardless of our membership of the EU.
How could I lose out from Brexit?
House prices are expected to be affected. The price boom in London could certainly be over.
Property market analysts, Hometrack, say their data suggests an “immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth” as buyers “wait and see” how the economy is affected.
Housebuilders’ shares fell sharply today and analysts predict a slow down for commercial property too.
This could all be good news for first time buyers.
Will Brexit increase interest rates?
That’s a 64 million dollar question. The answer is probably not immediately.
Concern for the UK economy in the new world make it unlikely, and the Bank’s main criteria for interest rate rises is inflation. The threat of that seems to have receded, so it is probably safe to predict that an interest rate rise won’t happen soon.
However, Goldman Sachs forecast this morning that the Bank of England may cut the headline rate from 0.5% to 0.25 % when its rate setting committee meets in July.
Lower interest rates are bad news for savers, but a big opportunity for borrowers.
How else will Brexit affect my money?
The performance of the pound is causing a lot of excitement and will continue to do so for a while. Coming out has meant a sharp fall in its value against other currencies today.
If this persists, it will have the effect of boosting the British exports by our prices appearing lower. A weaker pound means we could see a boom for exporting manufacturing companies, who have been having a hard time over the last year.
So, if you invest, or work for a company that is a big exporter, you may want to remember that access to the European Single Market is not the whole story. Your business could become more competitive, despite the threat of being exposed to higher trade tariffs.
Your overseas holiday could cost you more to buy now and your spending money will certainly buy less abroad this summer.
So is Brexit a good thing?
There are lots new uncertainties ahead, so we can’t know right now. But, where there are uncertainties, opportunities exist too.
If you take the view that it is time to look again at what represents good value, whether that is your mortgage, savings or pension investments – it makes sense to have an expert who can look with you.
To take advantage of our expertise, simply call us today.